The war for best
MMO of the year is still up in the air. For the longest time everyone thought it would be a duel to the death between Wrath of the
Lich King and
Warhammer. I think we were all surprised when Age of Conan showed such a strong release and made it seemed like it also might be in the running. The game's shine has worn off now and fans are starting to clamour for
Funcom to deliver on all the promises it made. The developers are trying, but it's obvious they released too early to take advantage of the lack of competition.
Funcom has said that they have had over 700,000 accounts made since release, but that number is probably not reflective of current active subscribers.
This has once again become a contest between Wrath of the
Lich King and
Warhammer. The current hype paints
Warhammer as the most likely winner though that's not based on probable box sales.
Warhammer is not going to sell more boxes then Wrath of the
Lich King no matter how popular it becomes. World of
Warcraft has too many accounts already established that are going to boost the demand for it. If you think about the monthly churn rate which has been estimated at about 4-5%, then World of
Warcraft most likely has around 20-30 million inactive accounts. Not all of these players are going to be coming back for the expansion, but a portion of them will be reactivated.
Warhammer has little chance to win if you look only at initial sales numbers. However, it's really the quality of the game play that sets the long term popularity of a game. A lot of video games based on movies sell well because of their relation to a license, but they soon
disappear into obscurity. Wrath of the
Lich King is going to win in initial sales, but the numbers will start to shift if
Warhammer is the better game. That's not to say that Blizzard is just going to stand by and let EA Mythic make a better game then them. World of
Warcraft finally has some decent competition and that's spurring Blizzard into being more innovative. (still slow as hell though)
I've mentioned before that people have made fun of the initial feature list announced for Wrath of the
Lich King since it was surprisingly lackluster. Now all of sudden Blizzard is mentioning new ideas like a dungeon done while flying on dragonback. I find it suspicious that Blizzard has held onto such a gem for so long. This might be because they wished to protect their design ideas, but more likely I think its because they just recently started putting effort into innovation. This is probably a good idea since even buggy Age of Conan was able to easily steal 700,000 players away from them for a month. And this is a game that had a lot of negative press from their open beta disaster.
I'm sure Rob
Pardo has nightmares about how many players
Warhammer is going to steal away for their initial release. I think the hype surrounding
Warhammer has caused Blizzard to go into overdrive trying to come up with new ideas to improve their expansion. The game that is now starting to take shape definitely doesn't look like what was announced at
Blizzcon last year. Instead we've got a game that is opening up casual raiding and introducing a lot of new combat features oriented around flying mounts. It seems obvious that Blizzard knows EA Mythic is going to be beat them on
PvP content and they've decided to try to steamroll them on the
PvE side.
That's not to say that Blizzard is ignoring the
PvP side since they are very familiar with taking features from other games and integrating them into their own. One only has to look at Lake
Wintergrasp to know that any popular feature in
Warhammer is soon going to have a baby brother in World of
Warcraft. It may not be streamlined into a
RvR experience, but it might be enough to keep players from trying out the new kid on the block. Plus, I think
Warhammer's hype is starting to get so thick that it's posing a danger to the actual game. The recent
Bartle incident is enough to show that
fanboism has reached an all time high for the game. With so many expectations being so high, I can't help but think
that there could be some major disappointment when it releases.
I personally thought I would be avoiding
WotLK because my interests have started to focus more on
PvP combat in
MMOs. I've had some bad luck with guilds breaking up because of
Karazhan and well equipped members guild hopping. This made me finally give up on raiding and just focused on small group content. Imagine my surprise when I started to find arenas and battlegrounds just as satisfying as raiding when decent rewards were included.
Warhammer seemed like the next logical step since most of its content was focused on similar
PvP encounters. However, I've found out playing Age of Conan that I still like
PvE content. I just needed something new that I could actually run with a small group. If Wrath of the
Lich King can introduce much better
PvE content and stay only a little bit behind
Warhammer in
PvP features then I might be returning to
Azeroth sooner then I thought.